Can a trend-following strategy pass a prop firm challenge?
Often, but the rules decide it. Our sample trend follower passed 67% of attempts on the middle challenge of the 63 we track, from 85% at FTUK Flex Challenge down to 37% at The Trading Pit Futures Prime 50K. The sample has a real edge built in, so read this as how the rules treat the style, not as your own odds.
The sample trend follower
A trend-following strategy joins a move that is already under way and holds for as long as it lasts, often for days. Most trades are small losses or scratches; a few long runners make the year.
Our sample wins 34.3% of its trades, each winner is 2.5 times the risk, each loser is the full risk, and it takes about one trade every two days. That is an average of 0.2R profit per trade, where R is the amount risked. The shape: The lowest win rate here and the biggest winners. Long flat or losing spells are part of the method.
Best challenges for a trend-following strategy
The 10 challenges where the sample passed most often. Every figure is for the sample trader at its best trade size; days are trading days. Each name links to how the style does across that firm's accounts.
| Account | Pass chance | Pass and get paid | Best risk a trade | Days to pass | Target | Daily loss | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTUK Flex Challenge | 85% | 53% | 0.38% | 64 | 4% | 5% | 6% trailing, locks at start |
| Bullwaves Prime 1-Step 100K Caution | 81% | 62% | 0.75% | 81 | 10% | 4% | 8% static |
| FundingPips 2 Step Standard | 80% | 74% | 0.75% | 120 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| Hola Prime 2-Step Pro 100K | 79% | 75% | 0.75% | 117 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| Hola Prime 2-Step Prime 100K | 79% | 75% | 0.75% | 117 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| FundedNext Stellar 2-Step | 79% | 74% | 0.75% | 116 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| Instant Funding One-Phase Pro | 79% | 65% | 0.75% | 78 | 10% | 3% | 8% static |
| Fintokei ProTrader | 78% | 75% | 0.75% | 126 | 8% / 6% | 5% | 10% static |
| Goat Funded Trader 2 Step GOAT | 78% | 71% | 0.75% | 127 | 8% / 6% | 4% | 10% static |
| Atlas Funded 2-Step | 78% | 70% | 0.75% | 115 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
Best instant accounts for a trend-following strategy
Instant accounts have no challenge to pass, so they are ranked on the chance of reaching a first payout before breaking a rule.
| Account | First payout | Best risk a trade | Days to payout | Payout needs | Daily loss | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant Funding Clarity (instant) | 95% | 0.75% | 14 | 0.1% profit | None | 10% static |
| Lark Funding Instant Master | 95% | 0.75% | 5 | 0.1% profit | 5% | 8% trailing, locks at start |
| Funded Trading Plus Instant Program | 93% | 0.63% | 7 | 0.05% profit | 6% | 6% trailing, locks at start |
| FXIFY Instant Funding | 92% | 0.75% | 14 | 0.1% profit | 8% | 8% trailing |
| FundedNext Stellar Instant | 89% | 0.63% | 14 | 0.1% profit | None | 6% trailing, locks at start |
Which rules help and which hurt
On every challenge, the most common way the sample failed was hitting the maximum loss. The table shows the middle pass chance by how deep the maximum loss is and whether it is static or trailing.
| Maximum loss | Static | Trailing |
|---|---|---|
| 10% or more | 78% (13) | 70% (3) |
| 6% to under 10% | 73% (13) | 64% (5) |
| Under 6% | Too few to say (1) | 65% (28) |
The number in brackets is how many challenges are in the group. Targets, daily limits and time limits differ between the groups too, so treat this as a pointer, not proof of what one rule does alone.
Rules a trend-following strategy runs into
- Weekend and overnight rules
- Trades held for days run into rules against holding over the weekend, and into swap charges on accounts that have them.
- Time limits
- With one trade every two days, a 30-day limit leaves room for about 15 trades. That is too few for a low win rate to even out.
- Consistency rules
- One long runner can be most of the profit, which is what a best-day rule is written to stop.
These are not in the pass figures above. Where we have recorded them:
- Bullwaves Prime 2-Step 100K: No holding trades over the weekend.
- Funded Trading Plus Instant Program: No holding trades over the weekend.
- Hola Prime 2-Step Pro 100K: No holding trades over the weekend once funded.
- Hola Prime Direct Account 100K (instant): No holding trades over the weekend.
- ThinkCapital Dual Step (Intraday): No holding trades over the weekend once funded.
We have recorded these rules for only some accounts. If a firm is not listed, check its own rules before you buy. With a pass, the test centre checks your trade file against them.
Every firm, for a trend-following strategy
| Firm | Best account for this style | Type | Pass chance | Pass and get paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTUK | Flex Challenge | 1-step | 85% | 53% |
| Bullwaves Prime Caution | 1-Step 100K | 1-step | 81% | 62% |
| FundingPips | 2 Step Standard | 2-step | 80% | 74% |
| FundedNext | Stellar 2-Step | 2-step | 79% | 74% |
| Hola Prime | 2-Step Pro 100K | 2-step | 79% | 75% |
| Instant Funding | One-Phase Pro | 1-step | 79% | 65% |
| Atlas Funded | 2-Step | 2-step | 78% | 70% |
| Fintokei | ProTrader | 2-step | 78% | 75% |
| Goat Funded Trader | 2 Step GOAT | 2-step | 78% | 71% |
| City Traders Imperium | 2-Step | 2-step | 76% | 70% |
| FTMO | 1-Step Challenge | 1-step | 76% | 65% |
| Lark Funding | 1-Step Career | 1-step | 76% | 71% |
| PipFarm | Classic (2-stage) | 2-step | 74% | 69% |
| Atmos Funded Caution | 2-Stage Standard 100K | 2-step | 73% | 67% |
| Audacity Capital | Ability Challenge | 2-step | 73% | 67% |
| BrightFunded | 2-Step Classic | 2-step | 73% | 67% |
| Hantec Trader | EnhancedX (2-Step) | 2-step | 73% | 60% |
| Maven Trading | 2-Step | 2-step | 73% | 68% |
| The5%ers | High Stakes (2-step) | 2-step | 73% | 67% |
| Alpha Capital Group | Alpha Pro 8% | 2-step | 72% | 67% |
| AquaFunded | 2 Step Standard | 2-step | 72% | 67% |
| Day Traders | EOD 50K | 1-step | 72% | 55% |
| Bulenox | Qualification 50K | 1-step | 71% | 59% |
| Legends Trading | Elite 50K | 1-step | 69% | 57% |
| Blue Guardian | 1 Step Standard | 1-step | 67% | 62% |
| FXIFY | Two Phase (trailing) | 2-step | 67% | 65% |
| ThinkCapital | Dual Step (Intraday) | 2-step | 67% | 61% |
| Apex Trader Funding | EOD 50K | 1-step | 66% | 55% |
| AquaFutures | Flex 50K | 1-step | 66% | 59% |
| Elite Trader Funding | 1-Step 50K | 1-step | 66% | 61% |
| Lucid Trading | LucidFlex 50K | 1-step | 66% | 57% |
| Take Profit Trader | 50K Test (PRO) | 1-step | 66% | 63% |
| Topstep | Trading Combine 50K | 1-step | 66% | 57% |
| Tradeify | Select 50K (Flex) | 1-step | 66% | 63% |
| Blue Guardian Futures | Elite 50K | 1-step | 65% | 53% |
| E8 Markets | E8 One | 1-step | 65% | 53% |
| FundedNext Futures | Rapid Pro 50K | 1-step | 65% | 52% |
| Alpha Futures | Standard 50K | 1-step | 64% | 51% |
| Earn2Trade | Gauntlet Mini 50K | 1-step | 64% | 46% |
| MyFundedFutures | Rapid EOD 50K | 1-step | 64% | 42% |
| Top One Futures | Elite 50K | 1-step | 64% | 45% |
| TradeDay | Fast Pass 50K | 1-step | 64% | 53% |
| Phidias Propfirm | Fundamental 50K | 1-step | 62% | 44% |
| BluSky Trading | Launch 50K | 2-step | 40% | 33% |
| Traders Launch | Legacy NYC 100K | 1-step | 40% | 22% |
| The Trading Pit Caution | Futures Prime 50K | 1-step | 37% | 28% |
| Funded Trading Plus | Instant Program | Instant funding | No challenge | 93% |
Compared with the other styles
| Style | Wins | Size of a winner | Pass chance, middle challenge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swing trading | 44.4% | 2R | 81% |
| High win rate | 75% | 0.4R | 80% |
| Position trading | 33.3% | 4R | 80% |
| Opening range breakout | 55% | 1R | 72% |
| Trend following (this one) | 34.3% | 2.5R | 67% |
| Mean reversion | 58.3% | 0.8R | 61% |
| Breakout | 36.7% | 2R | 59% |
| Low win rate | 20% | 5R | 54% |
| Day trading | 41.3% | 1.5R | 45% |
| Scalping | 53.7% | 0.9R | 44% |
| Grid and martingale | 90.9% | 0.3R | 31% |
How this was worked out
Each style is a made-up sample trader, not a real track record. We set the figures so that every sample makes the same average profit: 0.1 times its risk per trading day, about 2R a month. They differ only in shape: how often they win, how big the winners are and how many trades they take. That way a difference between two styles comes from how the rules treat the shape, not from one sample simply being better. The exception is the grid and martingale sample, which has no edge at all: adding to losing trades changes the shape of the results but cannot create an edge.
Each sample was run 1,000 times against each account's published rules, at nine trade sizes from 0.13% to 1% of the account, and we show the size that did best. It is the same engine as the test centre. How the simulation works.
What this leaves out. Every sample but that one has a real edge and never breaks its own rules, which is why these figures are far higher than the share of real traders who pass. There are no spreads, commissions, swaps or slippage. Every winner and loser is the same size. And it only tests the rules in the table: profit targets, loss limits, trading days, time limits, consistency and payout terms, not rules on news, weekends or hold times. A strategy with no edge fails everywhere, whatever its style.
Questions
Can a trend-following strategy pass a prop firm challenge?
Often, but the rules decide it. Our sample trend follower, which wins 34.3% of its trades, each winner is 2.5 times the risk, each loser is the full risk, and it takes about one trade every two days, passed 67% of attempts on the middle challenge of the 63 we track. The best was FTUK Flex Challenge at 85% and the worst The Trading Pit Futures Prime 50K at 37%. The sample has a real edge built in; a strategy without one fails everywhere.
Which prop firm is best for a trend-following strategy?
On the rules alone, FTUK Flex Challenge gave our sample the best chance of passing (85%), followed by Bullwaves Prime 1-Step 100K (81%) and FundingPips 2 Step Standard (80%). That ranks the rules for this shape of results; it says nothing about how reliably each firm pays.
How much should a trend-following strategy risk per trade in a challenge?
In our runs the best size for this sample was 0.63% of the account per trade on the middle challenge, and ranged from 0.3% to 1% depending on the rules. Tighter loss limits need smaller trades. Your own best size depends on your win rate and losing runs.
Test your own trades
These are samples. Your strategy has its own win rate, its own losing runs and its own costs. Upload a backtest or trade history and PropPassCheck replays it 2,000 times against every account, and shows your own chance of passing and of a first payout. It runs in your browser; nothing is uploaded.