Can a grid or martingale strategy pass a prop firm challenge?
Only by luck. Our sample grid trader passed 31% of attempts on the middle challenge of the 63 we track, from 52% at FTUK Flex Challenge down to 9% at BluSky Trading Launch 50K. This sample has no edge at all, so every pass here is luck: read it as how much room the rules leave for luck, not as a reason to trade this way.
The sample grid trader
A grid or martingale strategy adds to a losing position, or doubles its size after a loss, so that a small move back closes the whole basket in profit. It wins nearly every time. When price keeps going, the loss on the basket is many times a normal win.
Our sample closes 90.9% of its baskets for a win of 0.3 times the risk unit, loses 3 times the risk unit on the rest, and takes about two baskets of trades a day. That is no profit on average, because the wins and the losses cancel out. The shape: Nine baskets in ten close for a small win, and the tenth loses ten times that. We gave this sample no edge at all, because changing the size of your trades cannot create an edge that the entries do not have.
Where the sample passed most often
The 10 challenges where the sample passed most often. Every figure is for the sample trader at its best trade size; days are trading days. Each name links to how the style does across that firm's accounts.
| Account | Pass chance | Pass and get paid | Best risk a trade | Days to pass | Target | Daily loss | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTUK Flex Challenge | 52% | 33% | 1% | 7 | 4% | 5% | 6% trailing, locks at start |
| Traders Launch Legacy NYC 100K | 46% | 31% | 1% | 4 | 2% | None | 1% trailing, locks at start |
| Lark Funding 1-Step Career | 43% | 35% | 0.75% | 72 | 10% | 5% | 7% static |
| Bullwaves Prime 1-Step 100K Caution | 41% | 32% | 0.63% | 110 | 10% | 4% | 8% static |
| Hola Prime 2-Step Pro 100K | 39% | 33% | 0.75% | 118 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| Hola Prime 2-Step Prime 100K | 39% | 33% | 0.75% | 118 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| FundingPips 2 Step Standard | 38% | 32% | 0.75% | 118 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| FundedNext Stellar 2-Step | 38% | 31% | 0.75% | 123 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| Atlas Funded 2-Step | 38% | 29% | 0.75% | 112 | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% static |
| The5%ers Hyper Growth (1-step) | 38% | 26% | 1% | 39 | 10% | None | 6% static |
Instant accounts
Instant accounts have no challenge to pass, so they are ranked on the chance of reaching a first payout before breaking a rule.
| Account | First payout | Best risk a trade | Days to payout | Payout needs | Daily loss | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lark Funding Instant Master | 85% | 1% | 2 | 0.1% profit | 5% | 8% trailing, locks at start |
| Funded Trading Plus Instant Program | 82% | 1% | 2 | 0.05% profit | 6% | 6% trailing, locks at start |
| Blue Guardian Instant Standard | 81% | 0.38% | 5 | 1.1% profit | 3% | 6% trailing, locks at start |
| FTUK Instant Funding | 81% | 0.38% | 5 | 1% profit | 5% | 6% trailing |
| Instant Funding Clarity (instant) | 80% | 0.75% | 14 | 0.1% profit | None | 10% static |
Which rules help and which hurt
On 56 of the 63 challenges, the most common way the sample failed was hitting the maximum loss. The table shows the middle pass chance by how deep the maximum loss is and whether it is static or trailing.
| Maximum loss | Static | Trailing |
|---|---|---|
| 10% or more | 34% (13) | 30% (3) |
| 6% to under 10% | 32% (13) | 24% (5) |
| Under 6% | Too few to say (1) | 31% (28) |
The number in brackets is how many challenges are in the group. Targets, daily limits and time limits differ between the groups too, so treat this as a pointer, not proof of what one rule does alone.
Rules a grid or martingale strategy runs into
- Any pass is luck
- With no edge, passing means the run of small wins reached the target before the big loss arrived. Trade it for long enough and the losses catch up, which shows in how many attempts pass but never reach a payout.
- Open-loss rules and bans
- Many firms ban grid and martingale trading outright or limit the loss on open trades. Our runs do not test this, and the loss while a basket is still open is deeper than the closed result we count.
- The real thing is worse than the sample
- Our sample loses a fixed amount when a basket fails. A real grid without a hard stop has no fixed amount: one trending day can take the account.
- Why instant accounts look good here
- An instant account needs only a small profit to pay out, and a grid produces small profits quickly. That is why firms that offer instant accounts tend to have the strictest open-loss rules.
These are not in the pass figures above. Where we have recorded them:
- Alpha Capital Group Alpha Direct (instant): Open losses on one market are limited to 1% of the account, and reaching that closes the account.
- AquaFunded Instant Funding Standard: Open losses across the account are limited to 1% of the account, and reaching that cuts the profit split.
- FTUK Instant Funding: Open losses across the account are limited to 2% of the account.
- Goat Funded Trader Instant GOAT: Open losses across the account are limited to 2% of the account, and reaching that closes the account.
- Maven Trading Instant: Open losses across the account are limited to 1% of the account.
We have recorded these rules for only some accounts. If a firm is not listed, check its own rules before you buy. With a pass, the test centre checks your trade file against them.
Every firm, for a grid or martingale strategy
| Firm | Best account for this style | Type | Pass chance | Pass and get paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTUK | Flex Challenge | 1-step | 52% | 33% |
| Traders Launch | Legacy NYC 100K | 1-step | 46% | 31% |
| Lark Funding | 1-Step Career | 1-step | 43% | 35% |
| Bullwaves Prime Caution | 1-Step 100K | 1-step | 41% | 32% |
| Hola Prime | 2-Step Pro 100K | 2-step | 39% | 33% |
| Atlas Funded | 2-Step | 2-step | 38% | 29% |
| FundedNext | Stellar 2-Step | 2-step | 38% | 31% |
| FundingPips | 2 Step Standard | 2-step | 38% | 32% |
| The5%ers | Hyper Growth (1-step) | 1-step | 38% | 26% |
| Fintokei | ProTrader | 2-step | 36% | 30% |
| Hantec Trader | EnhancedX (2-Step) | 2-step | 35% | 27% |
| Legends Trading | Elite 50K | 1-step | 35% | 14% |
| Bulenox | Qualification 50K | 1-step | 34% | 15% |
| City Traders Imperium | 2-Step | 2-step | 34% | 27% |
| AquaFunded | 2 Step Standard | 2-step | 33% | 28% |
| Atmos Funded Caution | 2-Stage Standard 100K | 2-step | 33% | 29% |
| Audacity Capital | Ability Challenge | 2-step | 33% | 29% |
| BrightFunded | 2-Step Classic | 2-step | 33% | 29% |
| Day Traders | EOD 50K | 1-step | 33% | 22% |
| FTMO | 2-Step Challenge | 2-step | 33% | 29% |
| Alpha Capital Group | Alpha Pro 8% | 2-step | 32% | 27% |
| Goat Funded Trader | 2 Step GOAT | 2-step | 32% | 25% |
| Instant Funding | One-Phase Pro | 1-step | 32% | 25% |
| Maven Trading | 2-Step | 2-step | 32% | 27% |
| Take Profit Trader | 50K Test (PRO) | 1-step | 32% | 28% |
| Apex Trader Funding | EOD 50K | 1-step | 31% | 18% |
| AquaFutures | Flex 50K | 1-step | 31% | 18% |
| Blue Guardian Futures | Elite 50K | 1-step | 31% | 22% |
| Elite Trader Funding | 1-Step 50K | 1-step | 31% | 17% |
| FundedNext Futures | Rapid Pro 50K | 1-step | 31% | 13% |
| Lucid Trading | LucidFlex 50K | 1-step | 31% | 18% |
| MyFundedFutures | Rapid EOD 50K | 1-step | 31% | 13% |
| Top One Futures | Elite 50K | 1-step | 31% | 19% |
| Topstep | Trading Combine 50K | 1-step | 31% | 18% |
| Tradeify | Select 50K (Flex) | 1-step | 31% | 21% |
| Alpha Futures | Standard 50K | 1-step | 30% | 18% |
| The Trading Pit Caution | Futures Prime 50K | 1-step | 30% | 19% |
| TradeDay | Fast Pass 50K | 1-step | 30% | 18% |
| Phidias Propfirm | Static 50K (Express to Live) | 1-step | 29% | 19% |
| Blue Guardian | 1 Step Standard | 1-step | 28% | 15% |
| E8 Markets | E8 One | 1-step | 27% | 19% |
| ThinkCapital | Dual Step (Intraday) | 2-step | 27% | 23% |
| Earn2Trade | Gauntlet Mini 50K | 1-step | 26% | 17% |
| FXIFY | Two Phase (trailing) | 2-step | 24% | 23% |
| PipFarm | Endurance (2-stage) | 2-step | 21% | 16% |
| BluSky Trading | Launch 50K | 2-step | 9% | 7% |
| Funded Trading Plus | Instant Program | Instant funding | No challenge | 82% |
Compared with the other styles
| Style | Wins | Size of a winner | Pass chance, middle challenge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swing trading | 44.4% | 2R | 81% |
| High win rate | 75% | 0.4R | 80% |
| Position trading | 33.3% | 4R | 80% |
| Opening range breakout | 55% | 1R | 72% |
| Trend following | 34.3% | 2.5R | 67% |
| Mean reversion | 58.3% | 0.8R | 61% |
| Breakout | 36.7% | 2R | 59% |
| Low win rate | 20% | 5R | 54% |
| Day trading | 41.3% | 1.5R | 45% |
| Scalping | 53.7% | 0.9R | 44% |
| Grid and martingale (this one) | 90.9% | 0.3R | 31% |
How this was worked out
Each style is a made-up sample trader, not a real track record. We set the figures so that every sample makes the same average profit: 0.1 times its risk per trading day, about 2R a month. They differ only in shape: how often they win, how big the winners are and how many trades they take. That way a difference between two styles comes from how the rules treat the shape, not from one sample simply being better. The exception is the grid and martingale sample, which has no edge at all: adding to losing trades changes the shape of the results but cannot create an edge.
Each sample was run 1,000 times against each account's published rules, at nine trade sizes from 0.13% to 1% of the account, and we show the size that did best. It is the same engine as the test centre. How the simulation works.
What this leaves out. Every sample but that one has a real edge and never breaks its own rules, which is why these figures are far higher than the share of real traders who pass. There are no spreads, commissions, swaps or slippage. Every winner and loser is the same size. And it only tests the rules in the table: profit targets, loss limits, trading days, time limits, consistency and payout terms, not rules on news, weekends or hold times. A strategy with no edge fails everywhere, whatever its style.
Questions
Can a grid or martingale strategy pass a prop firm challenge?
Only by luck. Our sample grid trader, which closes 90.9% of its baskets for a win of 0.3 times the risk unit, loses 3 times the risk unit on the rest, and takes about two baskets of trades a day, passed 31% of attempts on the middle challenge of the 63 we track. The best was FTUK Flex Challenge at 52% and the worst BluSky Trading Launch 50K at 9%. This sample has no edge at all, so every one of those passes is luck, and far fewer went on to be paid.
Do prop firms allow grid or martingale trading?
Many firms ban grid and martingale trading outright or limit the loss on open trades, and the rules differ from account to account. We have recorded an open-loss limit on 5 accounts so far, listed on this page. Check a firm's own rules before you buy: breaking them can cost the account or the payout even after a pass.
Test your own trades
These are samples. Your strategy has its own win rate, its own losing runs and its own costs. Upload a backtest or trade history and PropPassCheck replays it 2,000 times against every account, and shows your own chance of passing and of a first payout. It runs in your browser; nothing is uploaded.