What your results mean
Each account is attempted 2,000 times, each time with your trading days drawn in a different random order, and checked against that account's rules.
| You see | What it means |
|---|---|
| Pass chance | How often you cleared every phase of the challenge. Instant funding accounts have no challenge, so they skip this. |
| Reach first payout | How often you passed and then met the payout rules without breaking a limit. This is the number that matters most. |
| Median trading days | The typical number of trading days to pass (or to a first payout on instant accounts). |
| Coloured bar | How the attempts ended: passed, hit the daily loss limit, hit the maximum loss, or ran out of time. |
| Tip | When a bigger or smaller trade size would improve your odds, it says how much and what your new chance would be. |
Verdicts
- Strong chance: 70% or more
- Coin flip: 40% to 69%
- Unlikely: under 40%
Why the same strategy gets very different results
Firms with the same profit target can behave very differently. A trailing maximum loss, a daily limit measured on equity, a consistency rule or a short time limit can each turn a strong strategy into a coin flip. Open the firm's page to see exactly which rules apply.
Limits of the simulation
- Limits are checked on closed trades. Firms that count losses on open trades can breach you sooner than shown.
- Per-trade rules (lot caps, news bans, risk per trade) are listed in each firm's notes, not simulated.
- Your past trades are a guide, not a promise.
The methodology page explains the simulation in full.
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